Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $9,192$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(516 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(46.3\) days)
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $177$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(39.4 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(71.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{158.3}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 61.6)}}\) (asimptote \(158.3\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,420$ on 2020-08-27
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $41,006$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(1.51 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(117.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,081.6}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 33.7)}}\) (asimptote \(33,081.6\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,003$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(877 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(117.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,953.4}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 37.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,953.4\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,203$ on 2020-08-27
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $263,949$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(9.83 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(112.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{242,490.3}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 44.7)}}\) (asimptote \(242,490.3\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $35,463$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(1.36 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(108.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,628.1}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 46.7)}}\) (asimptote \(34,628.1\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $21,932$ on 2020-08-27
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,867,785$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(4.33 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,670,343.3}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 153.7)}}\) (asimptote \(9,670,343.3\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $180,824$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(3.69 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(68.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{161,611.3}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 66.0)}}\) (asimptote \(161,611.3\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,585,635$ on 2020-08-27
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $332,509$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(8.89 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(83.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{300,885.0}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 57.5)}}\) (asimptote \(300,885.0\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $41,564$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(1.51 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(94.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,572.3}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 45.3)}}\) (asimptote \(40,572.3\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $289,381$ on 2020-08-27
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $83,898$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(1.14 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{89,712.4}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 97.2)}}\) (asimptote \(89,712.4\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,820$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(1.65 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(77.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,674.2}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 55.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,674.2\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $78,078$ on 2020-08-27
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $240,571$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(8.15 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(105.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{201,212.7}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 40.0)}}\) (asimptote \(201,212.7\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,290$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(3.85 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(105.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,984.4}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 37.8)}}\) (asimptote \(8,984.4\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $18,372$ on 2020-08-27