Please read the README file in this repository.

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $9,192$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(516 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(46.3\) days)

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $177$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(39.4 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(71.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{158.3}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 61.6)}}\) (asimptote \(158.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,420$ on 2020-08-27

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $41,006$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(1.51 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(117.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,081.6}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 33.7)}}\) (asimptote \(33,081.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,003$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(877 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(117.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,953.4}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 37.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,953.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,203$ on 2020-08-27

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $263,949$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(9.83 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(112.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{242,490.3}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 44.7)}}\) (asimptote \(242,490.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $35,463$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(1.36 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(108.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,628.1}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 46.7)}}\) (asimptote \(34,628.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $21,932$ on 2020-08-27

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,867,785$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(4.33 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(44.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,670,343.3}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 153.7)}}\) (asimptote \(9,670,343.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $180,824$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(3.69 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(68.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{161,611.3}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 66.0)}}\) (asimptote \(161,611.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,585,635$ on 2020-08-27

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $332,509$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(8.89 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(83.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{300,885.0}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 57.5)}}\) (asimptote \(300,885.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $41,564$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(1.51 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(94.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,572.3}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 45.3)}}\) (asimptote \(40,572.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $289,381$ on 2020-08-27

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $83,898$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(1.14 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{89,712.4}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 97.2)}}\) (asimptote \(89,712.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,820$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(1.65 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(77.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,674.2}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 55.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,674.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $78,078$ on 2020-08-27

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $240,571$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(8.15 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(105.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{201,212.7}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 40.0)}}\) (asimptote \(201,212.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,290$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(3.85 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(105.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,984.4}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 37.8)}}\) (asimptote \(8,984.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $18,372$ on 2020-08-27

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Djibouti recovered 99%
China recovered 99%
Belarus recovered 97%
Singapore recovered 93%
Pakistan recovered 92%
Mauritania recovered 85%
Ghana recovered 85%
Madagascar recovered 80%
Cote d'Ivoire recovered 77%
Kazakhstan recovered 75%
Uzbekistan recovered 69%
Denmark recovered 66%
Saudi Arabia recovered 65%
Kyrgyzstan recovered 62%
Afghanistan recovered 62%
Egypt recovered 58%
South Africa recovered 58%
Armenia recovered 55%
Australia recovered 52%
Uruguay recovered 45%
Bahrain recovered 44%
Israel recovered 40%
Russia recovered 33%
Venezuela recovered 31%
Japan recovered 31%
Vietnam recovered 25%
Dominican Republic recovered 23%
Colombia recovered 14%
Brazil recovered 13%
Senegal recovered 9%
Indonesia recovered 9%
Bolivia recovered 8%
Bangladesh recovered 8%
Malta recovered 6%
Malawi recovered 5%
El Salvador recovered 4%

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,383$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(1.09 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,249.2}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 68.3)}}\) (asimptote \(5,249.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $60$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(12.2 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{58.6}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 58.1)}}\) (asimptote \(58.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $16$ on 2020-08-27

China⮸

Population $1,439,323,776$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $89,814$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(-6.05 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{84,494.8}{1 + 10^{-0.086 (t - 15.4)}}\) (asimptote \(84,494.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-01-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $4,715$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(-3.38 \times 10^{-14} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,678.8}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 31.6)}}\) (asimptote \(4,678.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-26 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $764$ on 2020-08-27

Belarus⮸

Population $9,449,323$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $71,165$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(1.31 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(60.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{68,772.6}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 73.0)}}\) (asimptote \(68,772.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $662$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(93.4 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(49.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{688.8}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 82.7)}}\) (asimptote \(688.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $853$ on 2020-08-27

Singapore⮸

Population $5,850,342$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $56,572$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(-6.09 \times 10^{-15} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{52,848.5}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 113.4)}}\) (asimptote \(52,848.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $27$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(11.7 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(106.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{26.7}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 36.1)}}\) (asimptote \(26.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-01-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,406$ on 2020-08-27